The downwelling Kelvin Wave currently in the WP has analogous WWV to 1997 but is starting from 2014's cooler base state. Even w/ attenuation & no additional forcing, this KW is enough on its own to send us to warm neutral/borderline weak El Nino conditions by late spring. #ElNino pic.twitter.com/i61nQCyY1Q

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) February 19, 2018