While the LR NAM looked worse, similar trends earlier in the run w/ this s/w over the MS Valley on the DWD-ICON, GFS, CMC, & UKMET led to the wave cutting off sooner from the main streamflow & thus more precip in the SE US. The changes after 48-60 hrs on the 0z NAM were a fluke.

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) January 15, 2018