As this oldie paper from Black & McDaniel (2004) lay out (link below), the initial state of the troposphere is *very critical* to determining if a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE)'s circulation/potential vorticity anomalies will propagate into the troposphere.

The… pic.twitter.com/Y3DvPTdvMD

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) December 26, 2023