As this positive lagged MJO composite pattern shows, these warm patterns often last an additional 3-3.5 weeks after* phase 3 MJO events (lag 4-5 = 20-25 days because these are pentads)

The fact that we’re also in a La Niña gives me more confidence in this kind of outcome for Feb pic.twitter.com/Bd5Pystq8c

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) January 15, 2023