Here's a tidbit. Last 3 El Nino seasons that had the MJO going into phase 8 in Feb vs Euro model from Feb 14th on. This winter flip could run to March 14th.

There comes a time to move from middle and make a forecast. Bookmark this tweet. I am all in. We will judge at the end. pic.twitter.com/1g3gs49arR

— Will Ciccone (@weatherwilly) January 31, 2024