Also, the new HRRRv4 isn’t exactly verifying well. According to the new 18z run, we should have had convective initiation about a half hour ago in northeastern Oklahoma and explosive updrafts by 20z/3 PM. We’ll see about that. One factor could be exaggerated 0-3km CAPE progs.

— Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ) May 4, 2020