Quite the shift west between the 12z and 18z GEFS. Likely a result of previous runs of the GFS/GEFS strengthening Fiona too fast, now catching up to the reality of a weaker system in the SR, ie a more southerly track initially. SR trends have big implications on LR outcome. pic.twitter.com/Eg03FrZ78U

— Matt Douglas (@mfdwx) September 16, 2022