GEFS continue to struggle w/ convection in the tropical Pac - among other things - and the ensembles underdispersion hurt it even further. Watch this adjustment over the past 4 days. Tread carefully using ens means in this pattern, even when they seem to show something anomalous: pic.twitter.com/kNjDgoFNRT

— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) February 8, 2019