With the first four months of the year now available, I estimate that 2025 is most likely to be the second warmest year on record at 1.52C in ERA5, with a ~8% chance of beating 2024 as the warmest and a ~25% chance of coming in at the third warmest after 2023: pic.twitter.com/K4r9F2dw9h

— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) May 5, 2025