Global temperatures in 2023 were really weird.

For almost every other year we can pretty reliably predict temperatures (red dot and bars) based on the long term trend, the prior year, and the El Nino / La Nina conditions at the start. For 2023 this model completely breaks down: pic.twitter.com/sBcIMxTVaW

— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) January 5, 2024