Although our upstream blocking pattern (-NAO) determines our Arctic trough's likelihood to cut off, our downstream ridging (+PNA) determines how much it'll dig. The gyre which is controlling our +PNA will be a pain to forecast, meaning resolving the +PNA will be a pain as well. pic.twitter.com/0oR5P8XY0h

— Nikhil Trivedi (@DCAreaWx) December 15, 2022