Weird disconnect. #99L only has a 30% chance of formation but already looks very close to being a short-lived TD. Would think this look necessitates higher odds even with unfavorable conditions setting in but I suppose the NHC doesn't want to pull the trigger on storms like this pic.twitter.com/VlZ64wPX3b

— Alex Boreham (@cyclonicwx) August 19, 2023