Model volatility doesn’t explain milder trends. First, MJO progression has been inhibited by the typhoon and La Niña, latter of which I expected. Second, -PDO is causing persistent -PNA, throwing a wrench in the pattern. -NAO should help suppress SE ridge = transient cold shots. pic.twitter.com/HNQlghWyYI

— Chris Martz (@ChrisMartzWX) December 18, 2021