What has me a bit skeptical of modeled MJO progression, however, is La Niña. As evidenced in 2011-12, when MJO attempted to enter Phase 8, convection died off due to cooler SSTs. Phase 6 is favored with warmer waters near Australia, translating to widespread mildness in January. pic.twitter.com/7VbkQqfmzU

— Chris Martz (@ChrisMartzWX) December 8, 2021