If this type of pattern looks familiar, it's because it's not much different from how Dec 2022 evolved prior to the cold air outbreak - strong -PNA coincident with a -NAO favored a low track into the Upper Midwest.

Be careful when you see posts hyping up March using the -NAO. pic.twitter.com/EF1K4D8kaG

— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) February 20, 2023