While deterministic models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF, UKMET) have continued to alternate between a farther west or east track, the multi-model ensemble mean has remained very consistent over the last day.

Uncertainty continues to decrease as seen by the ellipse trending smaller. pic.twitter.com/0OL68XDDgA

— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) September 26, 2022