Based on the model & ensemble spread, I highlighted the main 3 possible outcomes below.

Outcome 1 was supported by last night's GEFS, but appears increasingly less likely.

I would currently put a 20/50/30 probability for these scenarios respectively, subject to change. pic.twitter.com/rvT3XBVjT7

— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) January 4, 2022