What is the confidence level on a strong El Niño?

The red blocks (🔴) indicate that the ECMWF ensemble unanimously predicts a strong El Niño in September.

Over 85% of members show a very strong event developing (>2.0˚C anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific) during November. pic.twitter.com/vlATYC4ace

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) August 7, 2023