What is the confidence level on a strong El Niño?

The red blocks (🔴) indicate that the ECMWF ensemble unanimously predicts a strong El Niño by November.

Over 70% of members show a very strong event developing (>2.0˚C anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific) by December. pic.twitter.com/QhfREjoRiV

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) July 7, 2023