The GFS is forecasting 500 MB heights to be almost 4 standard deviations below the mean next Tue-Wed along the East Coast - a 1/1000 year event!

Classic +PNA/-NAO pattern.

For mid-October that means lows in the 30s to I-95. and the first lake effect snow event of the season. pic.twitter.com/vROMHgFrDH

— Andrew Markowitz (@amarkowitzWX) October 13, 2022