Lots of interest in the stratosphere in recent weeks, as the models ebb and flow with their predictions of vortex weakening.

If we find the top historical analogs to last night's EC46 "polar cap height" forecast, it turns out 8 of 10 saw a SSW event in the next few weeks. pic.twitter.com/MwxmHaEEOd

— World Climate Service (@WorldClimateSvc) December 20, 2023