Groupthink in the El Niño forecasts?

Except for the low-skill DWD model, the Copernicus models have been unusually confident in their Niño3.4 forecasts this spring. Often a large predicted anomaly entails more inter-model spread, not less.

Compare to 1997 and 2015 hindcasts. pic.twitter.com/x9EXDBytKB

— World Climate Service (@WorldClimateSvc) May 19, 2023