Looking at tonight's extended-range forecast, I'd say the seasonal model guidance from earlier in the month (released today by @CopernicusECMWF) has been "overtaken by events". The German model was a lonely outlier with a negative AO phase for January (now looking quite likely). pic.twitter.com/Fr2W8xN9oY

— World Climate Service (@WorldClimateSvc) December 13, 2021