[2/2] Here's Karen at Day 5 on the GFS under a similar upper-level flow. Again, the shear is larger than it looks on this particular forecast.

Whether Karen actually gets sheared, and for how long, is currently uncertain due to complex interaction of Jerry, ULL, ridge, & Karen. pic.twitter.com/Ahj8q20osT

— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) September 23, 2019