And a reminder: bulk 850-200mb shear very frequently lies to you. Here on GFS analysis it's supposedly 7 kt. The maximum shear layer (300-850mb) has a magnitude of 15 kt. Satellite evidence suggests this has been enough to tilt the vortex substantially. https://t.co/4I3oxgCs3n

— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) September 18, 2019