A 'proper' major stratospheric warming (unless it becomes the final warming) now looks likely to occur in the first week of March (strong ensemble support from ECMWF & GEFS).

Consistent with this, ECMWF's MSLP forecast shows a solid negative NAO through March. Spring on hold? pic.twitter.com/Y5RnREIWi6

— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) February 20, 2024