But why has the stratospheric forecast shifted so much? Harder to answer, but one possibility is downward wave reflection. Over N America, the wave tilts eastward with height, with negative heat flux, suggestive of localised downward wave propagation. https://t.co/g9KVhHbwxT pic.twitter.com/ruVmI97HV0

— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) February 14, 2024