2) One of my assumptions for my winter forecast was that an SSWE had a greater than normal chance of occurring. Of 9 Dec-Feb periods that had an average MEI of +0.5 or greater and a -QBO, (which we have this year) 7/9 had a SSWE. Thus I thought the risk was greater than normal pic.twitter.com/rkKXHL9Z7e

— Allan Huffman (@RaleighWx) December 23, 2023