Scenario #1 about Ernesto next week. Trough is flatter-further north and the storm re-curves safely away from the U.S. east coast ,
Scenario #2 about Ernesto is a deeper-stronger trough and more of a closer threat to the U.S.

Regardless, a landfall directly in Florida appears… pic.twitter.com/aiyGJpQRuU

— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) August 10, 2024