I would respect any model forecast for an SSW a couple of weeks down the road. My estimate would be between the 16th-21st at this point and time. Hard to say if it evolves into a Major warming. I would lean slightly toward it 60-40.
FW? I seriously doubt it. Solar minimum. pic.twitter.com/VJP5Ee4iRy

— Jim Hughes windweather sun and stratosphere (@JimWindweather) February 2, 2020