This is a reason to be somewhat skeptical of the NAM's forecast for a track much farther NW because the NAM has a fairly well-known tendency to overdo convective activity.

Similarly, the GFS' south outlier track may be due in part to under-parameterizing convection. pic.twitter.com/hMkrT51oGh

— Jack Sillin πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ (@JackSillin) December 14, 2020