Overnight sensitivity analysis shows strong influence of downstream ridge strength on the track and intensity of the midweek storm.

That means model forecasts are likely to be quite sensitive to their handling of warm-sector convection & associated latent heat release! pic.twitter.com/0n9eFM4QjQ

— Jack Sillin πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ (@JackSillin) December 14, 2020