What's the chance of a very strong El Niño?

The red blocks (🔴) indicate that 85% of the ECMWF ensemble predicts a very strong El Niño (>2.0˚C anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific) during December-January.

You'll likely only see a few events this strong in your lifetime. pic.twitter.com/H2IO9fPlCY

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) September 7, 2023