How confident could we be in a prediction about the polar vortex so far in advance?
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) July 16, 2021
Not very.
The ensemble members tell us that while the average outcome is for a weaker vortex, the spread is quite large — typical for a long range outlook.
The best we can do is keep watching! pic.twitter.com/Z6t3n5J808