The latest ECMWF #Florence-ellipsogram:

-Shows a tighter track (i.e. less spread) en route to NC/SC.

-Has nearly all members indicating significant strengthening.

-Has an ensemble mean that shows #Florence stalling over NC - let's hope not. pic.twitter.com/jgmo7Hc0dS

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) September 9, 2018