The new ECMWF-SEAS5 guidance is in.

Takeaways:

1 El Niño: 10% neutral | 70% weak | 20% moderate
1a Modoki to start, bec. conventional

2 After a warm October, things turn in the East.

3 A stormy winter along the eastern seaboard [especially Mid-Atlantic] 👀 pic.twitter.com/LUWuYoi4Lm

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) September 6, 2018