One quick note on the Atlantic ensemble signal from 12Z (both EPS and GEFS now): the signal seems to mostly come from something forming in the ITCZ. This is a legitimate TC genesis mechanism, but it's a tricky one that models don't always handle very well. So use caution. pic.twitter.com/cmPsv7Bbzg

— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) August 15, 2022