What's the chance of a very strong El Niño?

The red blocks (🔴) indicate that 75-80% of the ECMWF ensemble predicts a very strong El Niño (>2.0˚C anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific) in December-January.

You'll likely only see a few events this strong in your lifetime. pic.twitter.com/GR5wSGYgSH

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 6, 2023