Another factor to consider is that GEFS/EPS have a bias toward developing Afr. waves too quickly, when they end up forming further W ~60-75W. This is esp. so with large waves caught up in the monsoon trough, like this one. A later developing wave is less of a certain recurve pic.twitter.com/YN7Wk3QYMk

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) July 24, 2023