Here's how the 2024 ECMWF prediction for the heart of hurricane season (left) compares with 2020 (right)...

This is based off of the May ECMWF forecast initialization from both years.

The 2020 season went on to become the most active season on record.

There are two main… pic.twitter.com/X7cvfVB8F3

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) May 6, 2024