Found the graph I mentioned to someone earlier. This shows why so much of Atlantic TC seasonal forecasts depend on getting ENSO right. Cool neutral and weak La Niña are both very favorable setups, but Atlantic ACE falls off a bit in warm neutral and sharply with even weak Niño. https://t.co/p6hAi38Td4

— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) April 5, 2021