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  2. Anthony my row house abuts the Kane Street Synagogue. I believe it’s the oldest in Brooklyn. My good neighbor says it best: ”This Too Shall Pass”. As always ......
  3. raindancewx

    2019 ENSO

    In La Nina winters, the Atlantic ACE index is one of the strongest indicators I can find for whether the SW will be hot or not. The years when your deity of choice sends out hurricane after hurricane to ravage the shoreline from coast to coast are absolutely bone dry and severely hot in the SW US. 1933-34 (the epitome of the Dustbowl) and 2005-06, the closest year to the Dustbowl pattern in the last 20 years, both had ACE indexes of over 250 - with record heat and less than a quarter inch of precipitation in Albuquerque. The 2017-18 year was no slouch either, ACE was 225, and we roasted, but the great SOI crash of February 2018 did kind of save that winter from record heat and dryness. Right now, the ACE index is under 5 for the season - http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/ Above 125, all our La Nina winter are warmer than average (49.5F).
  4. yoda

    July Discobs 2019

    Well that was interesting... poured for about three minutes just now... checked radar, saw nothing... zoomed in and there is a tiny shower right over me that popped up... another one is right over La Plata
  5. ineedsnow

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    Seems alot bigger being there..
  6. I've been attempting to refine my methods for predicting high temperatures anomalies in the SW in La Ninas. It looks like the ACE Index in the Atlantic is a pretty strong indicator. Historically severe Atlantic hurricane seasons, in La Ninas, tend to be very hot, dry winters in Albuquerque. I'm not even convinced this will be a La Nina, but just for reference, I thought this was interesting - the three hottest La Ninas were all absolutely terrible, life destroying hurricane seasons - 1933, 2005, 2017. The two La Ninas over 250 on the Ace Index are 2005-06 and 1933-34 - essentially low-solar, Dust Bowl BS patterns in each case.
  7. bowtie`

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Lake influence?
  8. dendrite

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    Eh..that’s zoomed out quite a bit. BDL isn’t that bad.
  9. Typhoon Tip

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    BD impressive on 00z FRH grid ... flag strainer sustained chill into Logon abruptly ... 60 deg at 20 kts 93 73 93 wed-Fri
  10. bowtie`

    Clouds - 2019

    Well, I had no plans for sunset pics this evening. Had a dental procedure today and was not feeling 100%. Plus it looked like the Bobby remnants had over run the area. Well a couple of sucker holes opened up just at the right time. But I had already put the car away and was about to jump in the shower. So I just took these from the yard with all the trees, lights and wires in the way. What it looked like when I realized it was going to do something... A shout out here to a gal in the back seat of a Jeep product, that when they drove by she pointed over my shoulder and all I heard was "bowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww". Turned around and darn if she was not right. an orange rainbow from the orange light. Back to the northwest again and the max orange... Max red and I was able to step back into the house and call it an evening...
  11. ineedsnow

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    Just saw the dew got down to 49 at bdl today!! That's really refreshing for peak climo!
  12. OceanStWx

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    I wish I had been paying more attention to the PDS of QPF. I'm wondering if there was a signal for a higher likelihood for localized high QPF vs. widespread thanks to the drier air. I know it's Kevin's favorite but we have a long way to go with probabilistic forecasts. We still have a long way to go with the Saffir Simpson scale. Scott is right, that's a garbage excuse not to evacuate, and maybe more evidence that we should move to an impact scale that includes Saffir Simpson. They may have been right to not order an evacuation, but for the wrong reasons.
  13. Today
  14. mreaves

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    I think it was 111 F when I got off the plane in Vegas last August. Not quite the same but pretty damn hot for this NNE boy. We did see 119F in Death Valley later that week.
  15. OceanStWx

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    They also had a plethora of returning vets to employee at airfields. Right now Farmington is a midnight ob, but I'm not sure how long it has been that way.
  16. STILL N OF PIKE

    Summer 2019 New England Banter and Disco

    We do this every year . Look at bouy temp when we got a slight NW breeze
  17. ineedsnow

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    That doesn't show all of BDL they have huge parking lots and buildings which I'm sure add to the heat.. planes are constantly going over my house at peak travel times.. I would say every 2 to 5 minutes..
  18. MetHerb

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    It used to be in a giant field on the other side of Rte 75 until they moved it "on field" in the 90s. Temps took a noticeable tick up when they did that, especially the mins.
  19. OceanStWx

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    The short answer is this was a "do no harm" update to the dynamical core. From there it theoretically be easier to improve on forecasts. The longer answer is that the GFS definitely had an over-mixing the boundary layer problem. Obviously showing up most notably during winter storms ( typically inverted) and HHH days (typically high moisture content leading to lower lapse rates). To my knowledge this hasn't been eliminated in the FV3 version. Look for more significant improvements on the model itself in 2020-2021.
  20. MetHerb

    Summer 2019 New England Banter and Disco

    It's probably the float not triggering the pump to turn on. It might help to get a hose in there and clean everything off, particularly if there is a contact switch mechanism. If that is internal to the float, you might need to replace it (or have it replaced).
  21. ORH_wxman

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    What a horrible spot. I remember when they changed it a few years back. It used to be to the left of the "Worcester regional airport" text on that shot.
  22. Tell your CO that you want a patrol car with A/C that functions
  23. powderfreak

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    Hot and dry open field climate? They also had the lowest dewpoint I could find of 49F. CEF had a high of 85F but a min dewpoint of 53F. Extra downslope/compressional drying/heating of the air mass? Still seems like a lot of extra degrees from other areas. Pretty sure Bradley has higher plane traffic inbound/outbound all day long tough...no idea how that affects it but jet engines running back and forth all the time might do it. Passenger and shipping operations out of that airport seem to occur pretty steadily all day long.
  24. We both are gonna suffer
  25. powderfreak

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    It's crazy because HFD looks more UHI than BDL... but HFD's high was 86F and the highest hourly ob was 85F.
  26. Hoosier

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Yeah it's interesting. I think being a bit farther away from the source region of these airmasses plays a role. This upcoming heatwave doesn't really strike me as one of those where everybody between Moline and Chicago is going to reach 100. I think it's a bit too marginal. The UHI around Chicago could give enough of a boost to reach triple digits.
  27. dendrite

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    And here is the irony which is the ORH ASOS. Surrounded by more tarmac than BDL.
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