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  2. irvingtwosmokes

    Central PA Spring/Summer 2019

    Someone has been to DC
  3. weatherwiz

    May 23/24 SNE/NNE Thunder Thread

    Holy crap...talk about a right moving supercell. That swath of UD moving into NJ is insane
  4. SPC outlook for tomorrow -- enhanced baby! more details soon. HM was tweeting about it last night, worth a look if you're bored.
  5. Superstorm

    Central PA Spring/Summer 2019

    Nice crisp, cool morning. “Fall preview”, lol. .
  6. Hoth

    May 2019 Discussion

    Fantasy cane season has arrived!
  7. ineedsnow

    May 2019 Discussion

    6z FV3 GFS nice hurricane at the end of the run lol
  8. weatherwiz

    May 23/24 SNE/NNE Thunder Thread

    Actually on second note I'm quite certain it's the Plains b/c it says 10% SIG. I think they started listed the probs with the D2 within the last year and I think they'll just list the highest probabilities that exist. I wonder if they'll ever go to a format for D2 like they do with D1 where they have a probability graphic for each hazard.
  9. ..KFOK down to 39*..as the wind went calm. eastport @ 46*..hope my tender, young zinnias will be ok.. will check the beach today and hit shinnecock bay early sat. morning for some early season fluke...seasons upon us boys!!
  10. Hoth

    May 23/24 SNE/NNE Thunder Thread

    Good point, I initially took that to refer to the Northeast, but it could very well refer to the whole CONUS.
  11. CoastalWx

    May 23/24 SNE/NNE Thunder Thread

    There are a few wild cards with instability, but overall some favorable factors tomorrow out there. For us, if we can keep a remnant EML, we’ll likely have evening boomers that may feature hail and frequent lightning.
  12. weatherwiz

    May 23/24 SNE/NNE Thunder Thread

    I was trying to gather if that was geared more towards the southern Plains or Northeast....hell I guess it could be both. Judging by the SPC SREF Sig tor ingredients I could see a 10%. I wanted to see the HREF probs but I guess it doesn't go out far enough yet.
  13. Hoth

    May 23/24 SNE/NNE Thunder Thread

    SPC suggesting a 10% tor risk possible out there tomorrow. Not bad for this part of the world.
  14. Today
  15. weatherwiz

    May 23/24 SNE/NNE Thunder Thread

    I think the main s/w track looks a bit more favorable than yesterday too. In fact, that looks pretty similar to 6/2/98 and the environment is quite supportive for tornadic supercells. Looking at some of the SPC SREF products I think you could argue a MOD RISK may be in store at some point
  16. Flatheadsickness

    Central PA Spring/Summer 2019

    lDay 4 (Saturday) Shortwave trough will crest upper ridge and move through the Great Lakes during the day before turning southeast into the Northeast States Saturday night. Surface low accompanying this feature will move through eastern Canada while trailing cold front advances southeast through the Great Lakes and Northeast States. Western extension of front should stall across the Central Plains. A dryline will reside near the TX/NM border. Low 60s F dewpoints will advect through the OH Valley warm sector Saturday contributing to modest instability. Thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the cold front located across the southern Great Lakes and spread southeast into the OH Valley and a portion of the Northeast States. Strong unidirectional wind profiles attending the northern-stream trough will be sufficient for a few organized severe storms. Other strong to severe storms will be possible along portion of the front over the Central Plains where strong instability will reside. Development along West Texas dryline remains uncertain at this time given apparent weak convergence and presence of low-amplitude ridge.
  17. Hoth

    May 23/24 SNE/NNE Thunder Thread

    Can't we back this analog up another 3 days? 1998 was a weenie's wet dream.
  18. CoastalWx

    May 23/24 SNE/NNE Thunder Thread

    This looks legit for PA. Maybe 6/2/98 redux?
  19. losetoa6

    May Discobs 2019

    45....feels great
  20. weatherwiz

    Monday, May 20, 2019 Convective Potential

    Some of those soundings in PA are nuts...nearly a 90 degree turn of the wind from the sfc to 700. Both the NAM/euro show some vorticity ahead of the main s/w trough and that is looking to blow through very quickly which could really put a damper on the potential. Assuming this modeled energy is legit.
  21. Flatheadsickness

    Central PA Spring/Summer 2019

    Stuck close to the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge with strong flow aloft is my idea of a good late spring summer. It would be great if it would dominate summer again like the mid 80's through early 90's. . Never the less I have known for the last few month's I would love the spring and summer kind of a no brainer for stupid old me.
  22. Next 8 days averaging 68.4degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is -1.0[60.0]. Should be +0.1[62.3] by the 30th.
  23. Flatheadsickness

    Central PA Spring/Summer 2019

    SPC AC 220600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes will be possible over a part of the central and southern Plains Thursday. Other severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and large hail are expected from a portion of the Northeast States into the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A significant shortwave trough will rotate through the base of an upper low centered over the Great Basin 12Z Thursday and into the central High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Farther east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will crest an upper ridge anchored over the southeast U.S. and move through the Great Lakes before turning southeast into the Northeast States Thursday evening. At the surface a warm or stationary front will likely extend from the middle MS Valley region southwest into southern KS. A dryline will reside near the TX/NM border. Warm front is expected to lift slowly north through central and eastern KS, while the dryline mixes through west TX during the day. Farther east a surface low attending the northern-stream shortwave trough will move through southern Canada while trailing cold front advances southeast through the Great Lakes. A warm front will advance east into a portion of the Northeast States. ...Central and southern Plains... Elevated storms may be ongoing over a portion of western and central KS north of the warm front early Thursday and could pose some risk for large hail. A very moist and unstable airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 F will reside in the warm sector from southern KS to OK and TX beneath 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, contributing to moderate to strong instability (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). Forcing for ascent attending the northeast-ejecting upper jet will glance western portion of the warm sector and in vicinity of the dryline that should mix east into the TX Panhandle and west TX. Storms development is probable along this boundary from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS where convergence will be maximized. Vertical wind profiles with 45-55 kt effective bulk shear will support supercells, and 0-2km hodographs size will also increase as the low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon and evening. Activity will spread northeast with all hazards possible with storms remaining in warm sector. Some storms may eventually move or develop north of the warm front, but strong effective bulk shear and moderate MUCAPE will still support potential for supercells with large hail. Overnight the entrance region of the upper jet and merging of Pacific front with dryline should promote additional severe thunderstorm development across west TX. ...Northeast States through Ohio Valley... The warm sector will gradually moisten west of the warm front during the day with low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km lapse rates, along with diabatic warming contributing to modest instability (800-1200 J/kg MLCAPE). Current indications are that storms will most likely develop along and ahead of southeast-advancing cold front spread southeast through the OH Valley and Northeast States during the afternoon and evening. Winds will strengthen as the mid-level speed max attending the shortwave trough approaches the region with effective shear supporting supercells. These storms may produce large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes as they move southeast through the region later Thursday afternoon into the evening.
  24. Flatheadsickness

    Central PA Spring/Summer 2019

    Then you will love this Mr. Atom I may have to break out the Cookies and Chem Dawg cross for this one. Multiple ingredients are present Thursday afternoon and evening for a rather significant severe storm outbreak with numerous fast-moving supercells and mini bow echoes within short TSRA lines. SPC upgraded the previous Slight Risk for Day 2 to an Enhanced Risk for much of our CWA. This upgrades seems warranted as llvl directional shear is impressive and strong leading to broad-loop hodographs and the base of 50kt westerly and WNW winds only around 5KFT agl during the mid afternoon to early evening hours Thursday. This is a classic supercell and potential large hail-producing environment as storm relative inflow/updraft helicity will be unusually high INVOF sfc warm front/lee trough across Ncent PA and the Susq Valley during the afternoon hours. Low LCLs under 3000 FT AGL covering much of Central and Eastern PA and strong LLVL shear will lead to 0-1km EHIs of 2-4(m^2/sec^2) near the warm front/lee trough over the central and eastern zones between 21Z Thu and 00Z Fri. The threat of several tornado-producing supercells will occur across this same region from mid afternoon to around dusk. In addition to the anticipated hail and isolated tornado threat, the supercells and their strong updrafts will occasionally collapse into fast moving mini bow/spearhead echoes that have the potential for producing localized, straight line winds in excess of 75 mph and swaths of wind damage. Storm total QPF will likely average between 3 and 6 tenths of an inch given the fast storm motion. Localized one inch amounts are possible where two or more TSRA occur. In the wake of the Thursday`s active weather, a slightly cooler and drier day is in store for Friday. By Saturday the humidity will begin to return along with a chance of mainly diurnal showers/storms. as a weak shortwave once again races over the top of the eastern ridge. We look to get a break on Sunday as the 12Z models show a mainly dry day, but by the Monday-Tuesday timeframe more showers become possible as we stay in fast flow aloft near the top of the subtropical ridge.
  25. Dipping into the 40s now, a big drop from near 90 on Sunday.
  26. Sugarloaf1989

    May 2019 Discussion

    39.7F here currently.
  27. Rtd208

    E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2019 OBS Thread

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
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