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  2. mattie g

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    That looks *exactly* like the run with the supposed poor initialization, so either it didn't matter at all or Ventrice is mistakenly posting and referring to the initial run.
  3. donsutherland1

    Newspaper Coverage of Climate Change

    Since the time I posted about the article, I have seen her piece. As I was traveling in China and just got back, I could not access it until my return to the United States. Based upon some of the criticism, Dr. Curry's included, my view is that the general ideas likely hold up, especially when it comes to "new media" coverage. In areas where the differences were small e.g., certain major media outlets, the conclusions may not hold up e.g., (the small advantage in coverage for contrarians may, in fact, be a modest advantage for the climate scientists). It would be interesting to see what the numbers look like if things are re-run to take into consideration some of the criticism e.g., one climate scientist who debated the contrarians at the Heartland Institute was grouped as a contrarian (the general category for all Heartland participants).
  4. Yeah I was outside when that happened I was like wtf
  5. wxdude64

    August Discobs 2019

    UGH! Stuff can be fixed, but it is a bummer. Long as everyone is safe!!
  6. JakkelWx

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    Weenie blocking galore
  7. Rhino16

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    It was torture watching the storms slide north or south of us. Glad someone enjoyed it!
  8. Yeah, that was the 2nd most interesting thing about those storms for me yesterday. Didn't take long to recover overnight, though. There was a lot of cloud-to-air lightning with the cells near the city yesterday afternoon and 1 "bolt from the blue" here in BK. Haven't seen that in awhile.
  9. WVclimo

    August Discobs 2019

    Ended up with 0.98" of rain from the storm last evening. Three large trees came down on my property, two across the street and another two doors down. A trampoline that was anchored into the ground with a heavy 6' stake lifted off (bending the stake) and flew about 50' before bouncing off the hood of our truck and then wedging under a tree, keeping it from smashing into the side of the house.
  10. Maestrobjwa

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    Nonsense (says this Ravens fan, lol)
  11. dailylurker

    August Discobs 2019

    My point and click has only a 20% chance of storms today so I'm expecting another active day. When it has 70% chance of storms I never get a drop. I scored a nice summer lightning storm late last evening where I picked up around a half inch in 15 minutes.
  12. wxdude64

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    Yeah, ya'll got blanked the rest of the winter basically. I had a few more snows and finished right at 35" for the year, about 8 inches above normal.
  13. Blew up literally a mile or so to my east, after sliding just to my north by a fraction of a mile. Not a drop here, however the dew point dropped considerably after it passed.
  14. etudiant

    Newspaper Coverage of Climate Change

    Dr Judith Curry is not a fan of this work, calling it 'the worst paper I have ever seen published in a reputable journal'. Her blog explains why she is irate. https://judithcurry.com/2019/08/14/the-latest-travesty-in-consensus-enforcement/
  15. cold front goes through Wed/Thurs-so Friday would be the driest day....
  16. C.A.P.E.

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    No worries. I am the one who first posted about it here when it first came out. Does not appear to have been updated on TT- same initialization time, and the h5 panels for DJF look the same. The updated (fixed) run seems to have the same look overall based on the Ventrice post.
  17. losetoa6

    August Discobs 2019

    I saw that storm headed towards Hanover. A heck of a light show to my north for a while
  18. Today
  19. Rhino16

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    No? Okay... Sorry!
  20. Rhino16

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    Even with that, the winter still sucked. One snowstorm shouldn’t decide if another one follows right? (That was the only noteworthy snow we had in Central VA)
  21. dendrite

    August 2019 Discussion

    68F and socked in at home. Breaking out into the sun at CON though. 0.42" in the tipper and 0.43" in the stratus. Looks like a hot, dewy day today and then we dry it out for tomorrow. Then a late push for higher dews again Wednesday before we COC. Hopefully we get another big drink today.
  22. C.A.P.E.

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    It appears the initialization issue has not changed the overall 500 mb idea. Its August. Its freaking hot. This is feel good stuff until we get to mid October when we might start to get some actual legit clues about how early winter will behave. The 2 indices to monitor over the next couple months are ENSO and PDO. eta- and SAI of course.
  23. Rhino16

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    TT appears to be updated, the messed up one would be obvious.
  24. wxdude64

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    Same here. Getting ready for work calling for 3-5, they (NWS) upped it on forecast to 6-10 as I left the house at 7 am. Got home that night (after an hour + drive that normally is 10 minutes) after 8 pm to 20.5"!
  25. Fingers crossed that a nice little pattern change is being shown on the ensembles(GEFS, EPS) this morning. Maybe the first cold front of the season around Labor Day? Pattern change potentially arrives with that front as well. Big ridge goes up over the West and at the very least knocks down the heat over much of the East with maybe even coastal areas getting involved over time. Still 10+ days out there so everyone knows the rules(huge grain of salt). The 6z GFS would be pretty awesome for the first full football Saturday of the year. The potential for normal or slighly BN is something that a few folks have been kicking around for a week or two, so let's hope that comes to fruition...meaning fall like temps.
  26. I was in NJ and there was a fair bit of C to G lightning that we could see from the GSP. It was a pretty good sized standalone cell to the east of the parkway with a nice rain column and high top. I like watching stuff like that evolve while I'm traveling. Is it really going to be wet every day this week? One more beach day before the kids go back to school would be nice. Which day is most likely to be worth the effort and is early that much better to be worth the extra effort?
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