superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well I was close to the watch issued for me...2-5" not 2-4". I think the 0.1" of ice is a little low to be honest. We've been really overperforming with sleet lately and underperforming on ZR. That might work to keep ice down (not that this event necessarily has anything to do with the last couple). We'll see. We could get some good icing once/if WAA really takes over and starts eroding the wedge from the top-down, though, depending on how long that takes. I see WSWs are out for the Blacksburg counties. I would guess RAH will uncork them here in a few minutes, then, as well. The 15z SREF looks a little better, not that it's probably much use at this range. Anyways, it's Happy Hour NAM time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 We've had several systems to track here in the Eastern and Central NC area lately and I can tell you the two best models for qpf amounts, LP track and final outcome have been the NAM and the RGEM. With the Eastern NC snow that dropped 1-3" across areas the Euro was "consistent" with absolutely nothing at all... Until within 24 hours of the event when it finally began catching on. The NAM and RGEM did excellent with regards to precip cutoff and accumulations. GFS was not that good but sort of caught on and the CMC was bad also. With this system I'm going with a NAM/RGEM blend since they've been doing well for this area and have the hot hand. The Euro may be consistent but it doesn't mean it's right. Same for the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The Watch is about what I expected for GA...any 1-2" snow is limited to high elevations of the mountains...the ice seems a little high down that way but I see what they are doing. Better safe than sorry...plus although have to do is change 0,25 to 0.20 with a Winter Storm Watch to a Freezing Rain Advisory if it were to come in warmer later on. Good call. GSP is in the middle...and will likely be similar just slightly better chances of actually receiving the above outlook IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GSP is posting a watch for 85 corridor and north - a very low-confidence watch. Carnesville to GSP to CLT and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The Watch is about what I expected for GA...any 1-2" snow is limited to high elevations of the mountains...the ice seems a little high down that way but I see what they are doing. Better safe than sorry...plus although have to do is change 0,25 to 0.20 with a Winter Storm Watch to a Freezing Rain Advisory if it were to come in warmer later on. Good call. GSP is in the middle...and will likely be similar just slightly better chances of actually receiving the above outlook IMO. I would think all of wnc under a winter storm watch, if nothing else so much uncertainty. include the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Question. Was the wording "a very low-confidence watch" posted in the GSP-AFD or some where else? Thanks GSP is posting a watch for 85 corridor and north - a very low-confidence watch. Carnesville to GSP to CLT and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Question. Was the wording "a very low-confidence watch" posted in the GSP-AFD or some where else? Thanks Probably should've just posted that part of the disco, so here ya go: *Edit: And qualified that they're referring to the edges of the watch. SINCE SUNDAY NIGHT IS NOW 3RD PERIOD...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WATCH. WILL TRY TO EXPLAIN THE PLACEMENT AS BEST AS POSSIBLE. STARTED AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE GENERALLY FROM FRANKLIN TO ASHEVILLE TO LENOIR AT 00Z MONDAY TO LINE UP WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS /ALL SNOW/ SPREADING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SPREAD THE WATCH SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY FROM CARNESVILLE GA TO GSP TO CHARLOTTE...AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHEAST. DROPPED THE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT 00Z TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN...BUT LINGERED FOR YANCEY/MITCHELL/AVERY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. NOW...GIVEN DIFFERENT 12- AND 24-HR SNOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE WATCH IS A BIT OF A STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW NC WHERE WE NEED 4 INCHES IN 12 HOURS FOR A WARNING. ACROSS NE GA...UPSTATE SC...AND THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT...CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL IS PRETTY DARN LOW AND REALLY ONLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE ENOUGH SLEET MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE IT MELTS...TO MAYBE REACH WARNING CRITERIA /YES I USED POSSIBLY AND MAYBE IN ONE SENTENCE/. PROBABLY MORE OF AN ADVISORY SITUATION BUT STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK THAT I FEEL OKAY WITH THE WATCH. I AM SURE THAT I MISSED SOME METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS THAT WERE INCORPORATED INTO THE GRIDS AND WATCH PHILOSOPHY BUT THIS IS LONG ENOUGH AS IT IS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 lol 18z nam pops a little coastal low off the FL GA border at hr 33, seems like the trend today has been to juice that area up more and more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 lol 18z nam pops a little coastal low off the FL GA border at hr 33, seems like the trend today has been to juice that area up more and more That solution would be interesting Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z NAM is colder in a lot of NC Piedmont locations over 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It looks like big time potential with the moisture sources encroaching from the Tropical Pacific SW, NW and the storm system. http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=39&longitude=-97&zoomLevel=4&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0040 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 18z NAM is a lot wetter than the 12z NAM for northern NC with the initial wave when it's cold enough. Most of that precip was in VA last run. 12z vs. 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC322 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHCAROLINA MOUNTAINS......WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY....THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTOTHE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONSACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BITTER WINDCHILLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVELDISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...AND WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURESIN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW. SNOW WILL CHANGE OVERTO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH TEMPERATURESWARMING ENOUGH TO CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO ALL RAIN BYMONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062-501>506-140430-/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0003.160215T0000Z-160216T0000Z/MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...ROBBINSVILLE...CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...LENOIR...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...OLD FORT...MARION322 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENINGTHROUGH MONDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.* HAZARDS...SNOW...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN MONDAY EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING UP TO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY EVENING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The CAD sets up along the southeast coast like nowhere else in the world. I'm a native Tar Heel and I've seen it all my life. Even way out to the eastern edges of the piedmont and into the coastal plain, CAD can be evident. Even if the hp slides somewhat east, as long as we have that north east or even east wind component at the surface the wedge will lock in for some period of time. NAM looks better at specifics in this setup than the Euro. Big question for me is how much moisture will there be and where will the slp track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 18z NAM is a lot wetter than the 12z NAM for northern NC with the initial wave when it's cold enough. Most of that precip was in VA last run. 12z vs. 18z: Not surprising, it's trending towards the RGEM solution which focuses the initial overrunning wave over NC instead of Southern VA. If that happens it will lock in the insitu cad wedge and drop several inches of snow before a sleet or zr changeover. RGEM and NAM are a great combo inside 48 hours and imo for CAD events like this superior to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 18z NAM is a lot wetter than the 12z NAM for northern NC with the initial wave when it's cold enough. Most of that precip was in VA last run. 12z vs. 18z: Look at off the coast of SC. Much more moisture out there, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12k nam looks pretty darn impassive for nc. Snow from tomorrow night thru 09z Monday before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Also from my experience I've learned that if any models are showing an amped up solution, like the Euro or UK, while the NAM isn't then that is a warning flag that the Euro/Uk is wrong. When the NAM isn't amping something up at 60+ hours and especially inside 48 hours it shows that whatever model with the amped solution being shown is incorrect. Also the 12km nam has a broad, strung out low with really no discernible surface reflection and it jumps around frequently. A far cry from the 998mb low the UK has and the strong LP the Euro is showing. I don't buy the UK/Euro solution this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Wow, 18z NAM really slows down later in the run, vs. 12z. At 60 hours, low is still back in far East-Central Alabama. At 66 hours on the 12z it was in S.C. I know these lows are weak and not easily keyed upon by models, but precip field is also much slower to move through. 18Z NAM also locks in the wedge a bit longer than 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Wow, 18z NAM really slows down later in the run, vs. 12z. At 60 hours, low is still back in far East-Central Alabama. At 66 hours on the 12z it was in S.C. I know these lows are weak and not easily keyed upon by models, but precip field is also much slower to move through. 18Z NAM also locks in the wedge a bit longer than 12z run. To me, the 4K NAM looks a touch warmer. Having said that, it's still keeping GSP at or below freezing through 57 hours. But yeah, it's definitely slower/further southwest of 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here's the thing -- if you are going to proclaim "party's over" and all that mess, then what you are saying is, you have supreme knowledge and confidence that there can't be a 1-2F error in modeled CAD region temperatures. If you are that smart, I tip my cap to you, but the truth is, I submit, this is within the margin of error of computer modeling and if there is indeed a 1-2F error on the warm side to the modeling, the outcome of this storm will be dramatically different. The NAM is showing about .75 inches of precip falling in Shelby at 32.6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Winter Storm Watches were just posted for much of Central NC. Including Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 RAH OVERVIEW: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE TIMING...MOST PROBABLE PRECIP TYPE PATTERN... AND PRIMARY WEATHER THREATS FORTHE INCOMING SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ONSET OF PRECIP SUNNIGHT MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... AND AN EARLIER ENDING BY THE LUNCHHOUR TUE. THE LATEST MODEL TIMING AND VERTICAL THERMALSTRUCTURE SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LONGER-LASTING AND MORE AREALLYEXPANSIVE ICING THREAT THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY... ALTHOUGHTHIS OVERALL LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS AT MOST OVERALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR NW. TENTATIVE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM ONETO THREE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICING (MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS)ALONG/NW OF HIGHWAY 1 EXCEPT FOR FOUR TO SIX HUNDREDTHS IN THE NWPIEDMONT... AND SNOW TOTALS OF 1-3" NW QUARTER WITH A QUARTER INCHTO ONE INCH ELSEWHERE (JUST A TRACE SE)... ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BEQUICKLY SWEPT AWAY BY MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREASALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE TO RALEIGH TOWARRENTON FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE MON.PRECIP TOTALS: STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 1 1/2"WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE... GIVEN THE HIGH WATER CONTENTAND STRONG LIFT MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTECEDENTCONDITIONS AND WITH SEVERAL RIVERS AND CREEKS RUNNING HIGH... AFLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MON NIGHTINTO TUE MORNING.STORM POTENTIAL: WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL (NEARING6.5 C/KM LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING MAINLY IN THE EAST)... THESTRONG AND FOCUSED LIFT POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WARMING LOWLEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN MAY SUPPORT AFEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Not surprising, it's trending towards the RGEM solution which focuses the initial overrunning wave over NC instead of Southern VA. If that happens it will lock in the insitu cad wedge and drop several inches of snow before a sleet or zr changeover. RGEM and NAM are a great combo inside 48 hours and imo for CAD events like this superior to the other models. And these two have been trending colder and with more precip each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Reminds me of dec 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here's the thing -- if you are going to proclaim "party's over" and all that mess, then what you are saying is, you have supreme knowledge and confidence that there can't be a 1-2F error in modeled CAD region temperatures. If you are that smart, I tip my cap to you, but the truth is, I submit, this is within the margin of error of computer modeling and if there is indeed a 1-2F error on the warm side to the modeling, the outcome of this storm will be dramatically different. The NAM is showing about .75 inches of precip falling in Shelby at 32.6F. December 2005 says hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 4k NAM has the 32 line extending all the way down to lookouts house at 1am Tuesday morning when the main band of precip swings through. Looks like it would be a major zr hit for western NC CAD regions all the way down to the northern upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This could be the perfect way to have a storm. Enjoy the snow and ice during the day Monday, while the rain makes it go away that night. The roads will still be a mess during the day Monday. Of course if the CAD holds on longer, or the precip stops sooner, there could be less rain to wash things away Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Wow, 18z NAM really slows down later in the run, vs. 12z. At 60 hours, low is still back in far East-Central Alabama. At 66 hours on the 12z it was in S.C. I know these lows are weak and not easily keyed upon by models, but precip field is also much slower to move through. 18Z NAM also locks in the wedge a bit longer than 12z run. Yeah, the 18z NAM has it 32-33 here while the heaviest precip comes in (following the decent bit of front-end wintry stuff which is no joke, as is). It makes you wonder. Current Watch update: EDIT: Also, the 12z French Fries backed off from the more amped solution it showed last night. It's more NAM-like now with a very weak surface low that barely even shows up on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Rgem is leading the way and has been for 5 runs it hasn't budged and if anything ticked colder. It's got the best grasp on this it's the ONLY model that u can look and say it has literally not moved any in the last 4 runs. Nam is coming to it. If rgem holds steady at 18z get ready boys it's gonna get messy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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