Disc

Still a lot of cloud cover and drizzle across much of Virginia leading to a lot of uncertainty. If we can start to break out of the clouds, I think this has a decently high ceiling considering the parameter space in place. CAMs are rather impressive with discrete cells forming in NC around 21z and then moving into Virginia and congealing more into a broken line as they progress into Central and Northern VA by 00z - 03z. Some impressive helicity tracks are noted moving into Southern Virginia, but wane a bit as they move north of I64, where I'd say this becomes more of just a wind threat. The new RRFS has been the most robust with this advertising multiple discrete cells, but the HRRR and NSSL/WRF models have a similar idea. I believe the WoFS will be run starting at 17z which has proven to be quiet skillful in the near term.

Light snow for about an hour or so.

Large debris fallout in correlation coefficient. A significant tornado likely occurred. Hearing reports of people trapped in Nash County.

Lots of golf ball and even a tennis ball size hail from the storms in C VA today.

All sleet in Blacksburg, VA. edit: and now just rain.

Here and watching. Our best chance at snow all winter. ULLs can do some crazy stuff, so this will be a wild ride the next few days.

Think of the NBM as a cycle or two behind the deterministic guidance. The 18z NBM has the 12z GFS/GEFS, but still has the 00z ECMWF/EPS and some 06z guidance. Full ECWMF 12z guidance is not within the NBM until its 21z run.

Damage in Bedford Co

I like where this was going..

Globals are keeping it just under the 0c isotherm, but I still don't think they're picking up on the warm layer. I'd be glad to eat my words later, but this one just screams mixing all the way into western VA. We do get a good ULL pass so that may help at the end. 2014's storm was further east though. This one is way inland and we had mixing issues up to the Blue Ridge in 2014 with a storm that was further east. Perhaps trends will improve tomorrow, there's still a little time left.

I am just not feeling this for southern/SW VA. With such an inland track and secondary low still wanting to go up the Apps, we will mix sooner than later. I've seen it numerous times. This is why I was hesitant earlier to say 12" up here is a lock and the trends this evening have me even less confident.

18z ECMWF was similar to the 12z run. The low transfer to the coast took slightly longer though.

I'd say between 7am-10am.

I don't live too far from the office, but will be an interesting ride. If I can make it out of the neighborhood to 460 I think I should be ok. If I had to commute from Roanoke I don't think I'd make it up Christiansburg Mountain.