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WINTER IS OVER .... NOT


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    MORE ON THE COMING PATTERN   CHANGE ...    

 

glad to see   WES is  a board....

i have been talking about the  dec 22-26  change  for   over a week now  so the  TREND IS MY FRIEND

 

One of the reasons why   I am not particularly bullish about the event /threat for December 21  is that the overall pattern on a hemispheric scale ...is not very favorable.   Yes the models  DO show   what appears to be cold  HIGH  in a pretty good set up ...at least for   the beginning of the event.   The  problem is that the flow  at 500 mb  across Canada is Pacific  and  ZONAL ....and has no arctic connection.   

Thus the HIGH is NOT  very cold and has to be the perfect ideal position when the  coastal  Low begins in order  to keep some  the precip snow.     The only reason why this is potential threat to begin with is the development of the big ocean Low over southeastern Canada    (the   50/50 LOW)

The    NAO is strongly positive which along with the Pacific pattern strongly  interdicts   the supply of cold air into the Northeast US.  

 
 
But beyond the December 21 event...  If we use the overall hemispheric pattern as a starting point we can truly see some significant changes taking place across the hemisphere by  DEC 25. 
 

  Here is the   324  hrs    EURO  EPS MEAN....   It shows several important tihngs...    many of which are  self  explanatory 

 
 
post-9415-0-59165400-1418399299_thumb.pn
 
 The   5  days  CFS  from  from the website tropicaltidbits  web site has been showing this for while....  and increasingly amplified +PNA and  -EPO  pattern . Now the  euro  ensembles  are showing  this as well.  see   image
 
The one thing that should be noted is that we do not on this map yet see a  -NAO  and the    PV is still very far to the north over Baffin island.
 
 here is the  week 3 and 4     500 mb on anomaly  maps from  CPC.  I have drawn in some key features for ease of comprehension.     The cfs   clearly indicates that the pattern amplification is going to really picked up speed  In week 3 and  week 4 .    The  -EPO goes absolutely ballistic in week4 and strongly resembles what we saw last January 
 
post-9415-0-24839300-1418399304_thumb.jp
 
But again ...even though there IS a  -AO    we do not   have   -NAO..   Yet  Here is why.  

Next week  as the zonal flow  across Canada  begins to amplify   it will  take on the    WIDE   and BROAD    shape.    We can all see that.  Because of this  ...the   PV is   forced to  over   to Baffin Island   in far Northeast Canada . This in turn  means any    RIDGE is    forced over  iceland  or the uK or Norway ...and the  NAO is   either positive or neutral. 
 
BUT as the   western  Canada ridge amplifies  ...   it will get pulled WEST     because of the --EPO    development.   This  will   cause   western Canada ridge   to shaprens up  ....which    in turn  will allow  he PV  to shift  SW   into  Hudson's  bay    And  THAT that in turn   will allow the   NAO to  go  Negative  in January
 
 
 
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Nothing calls the Pacific like the JMA- IIRC they were the only ones who were even close last year- and there doesn't seem to be much doubt that whatever we call it (Nino, non-Nino, mild, modoki, etc.), the placid puddle is calling the shots in NA this winter. Here's an analysis of their JFM, which is also carrying a good correspondence with the CFS as well; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLeKt4yjHgw

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  • 2 weeks later...

  THIS     WAS A TOTAL AND    COMPLETE  BUST ....


 

 

    MORE ON THE COMING PATTERN   CHANGE ...    

 

glad to see   WES is  a board....

i have been talking about the  dec 22-26  change  for   over a week now  so the  TREND IS MY FRIEND

 

One of the reasons why   I am not particularly bullish about the event /threat for December 21  is that the overall pattern on a hemispheric scale ...is not very favorable.   Yes the models  DO show   what appears to be cold  HIGH  in a pretty good set up ...at least for   the beginning of the event.   The  problem is that the flow  at 500 mb  across Canada is Pacific  and  ZONAL ....and has no arctic connection.   

Thus the HIGH is NOT  very cold and has to be the perfect ideal position when the  coastal  Low begins in order  to keep some  the precip snow.     The only reason why this is potential threat to begin with is the development of the big ocean Low over southeastern Canada    (the   50/50 LOW)

The    NAO is strongly positive which along with the Pacific pattern strongly  interdicts   the supply of cold air into the Northeast US.  

 
 
But beyond the December 21 event...  If we use the overall hemispheric pattern as a starting point we can truly see some significant changes taking place across the hemisphere by  DEC 25. 
 

  Here is the   324  hrs    EURO  EPS MEAN....   It shows several important tihngs...    many of which are  self  explanatory 

 
 
 
 The   5  days  CFS  from  from the website tropicaltidbits  web site has been showing this for while....  and increasingly amplified +PNA and  -EPO  pattern . Now the  euro  ensembles  are showing  this as well.  see   image
 
The one thing that should be noted is that we do not on this map yet see a  -NAO  and the    PV is still very far to the north over Baffin island.
 
 here is the  week 3 and 4     500 mb on anomaly  maps from  CPC.  I have drawn in some key features for ease of comprehension.     The cfs   clearly indicates that the pattern amplification is going to really picked up speed  In week 3 and  week 4 .    The  -EPO goes absolutely ballistic in week4 and strongly resembles what we saw last January 
 
 
But again ...even though there IS a  -AO    we do not   have   -NAO..   Yet  Here is why.  

Next week  as the zonal flow  across Canada  begins to amplify   it will  take on the    WIDE   and BROAD    shape.    We can all see that.  Because of this  ...the   PV is   forced to  over   to Baffin Island   in far Northeast Canada . This in turn  means any    RIDGE is    forced over  iceland  or the uK or Norway ...and the  NAO is   either positive or neutral. 
 
BUT as the   western  Canada ridge amplifies  ...   it will get pulled WEST     because of the --EPO    development.   This  will   cause   western Canada ridge   to shaprens up  ....which    in turn  will allow  he PV  to shift  SW   into  Hudson's  bay    And  THAT that in turn   will allow the   NAO to  go  Negative  in January

 

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