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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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OHUJMS at Ohio U once again

 

83/65/12/0

 

The high was a bit of a gamble, but everything else should be ok I think. We'll see

 

Edit: Didn't realize it was already 67 (I have to forecast a few hours early on Mondays, grr)...but with dew points in the mid 60's advecting in on the very light NNE winds and clouds all night I personally don't see lower 60's. But hey it wouldn't be fun if the first forecast was a slam dunk!

 

post-525-0-99597400-1412039795_thumb.gif

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I'm anxious for another year! Find me at nmjurg from UNL.

 

Went 82/63/9/0. Not looking likely for my high today but there's still a bit of time.

 

Edit: Scratch that. Phew!

KILM 301853Z 02008KT 340V040 10SM BKN035 28/18 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP100 T02780183

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Climo report has 82/63/12/0...still 82 for the 21z ob but I think at this point they've probably maxed out. Better first forecast than I had for most cities last year regardless.

If that stands, I'll gladly take a 1.5 point first day of the competition.

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just saw the schedule. no, i'm not competing, but I have to admit I am curious about the contest every year because of how it did give me a bit of a start in the forecasting side of meteorology. and take advantage of all the places if you get a chance, as here's the time to try different forecast methods and see what's most comfortable to you.

 

but to the schedule itself, looks interesting. I see some of the sites are placed beautifully timingwise. but some clues for those in there,

 

  • hope you know your coastal interaction and your ocean water temps for your current site in ILM.
  • for butte, watch your upslope/downslope as well as your wind funneling
  • caribou, not much to say
  • abilene, if it's not upslope from the gulf, then don't worry much about precip
  • sault ste marie, keep an eye on the lake ice, and remember, the site you're predicting is ANJ, but the site with the manned cloud cover and obs is CYAM, and the canadian radar up at Montreal River has a better view of squalls coming in that part of the lake than MQT or APX. one last thing: some of the guidance is based off the old SSM site, not ANJ.
  • PHX should be nice and comfy with the temps
  • SPI, anything and everything is possible, esp ice
  • Long Beach, I think that's during the rainy season if I remember correctly
  • MGM, ice or rain for precip, but get a decent gulf surge, and they are the right latitude for an outbreak that time of year with the right synoptic setup.

now even though I will give those general hints from past experience, what I won't give is day by day forecast guesses and specifics, more just watching the chatter and stuff.

 

good luck to all of you.

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