ag3 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This looks like a classic LI type storm with a very right cutoff to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ant unless your in NE i put almost zero stock in a norlun trough signature. That said im watching the ECMWF control/OP/ensembles before i take what the GFS shows as gospel especially this far out I know about the norlun but this run wasn't that bad considering we are 5 days away and we have seen big shifts as we got close to an event. H5 doesn't look bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 So frustratingly close...personally even if the other models were showing a mecs id still expect the GFS to be SE, especially in a phasing storm, plenty of time to go but it would be nice to start to get some data giving us a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Good luck with what? People are making it seem that this is the final solution. This run wasn't that far away from a bigger storm for our area. The coast still gets some snow. I agree. Don't be discouraged. All the models are showing a powerhouse storm; just might be the GFS southeast bias at play here. Six days to go, lots of time for this to trend west. I would wait till the weekend when everything is on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I agree. Don't be discouraged. All the models are showing a powerhouse storm; just might be the GFS southeast bias at play here. Six days to go, lots of time for this to trend west. I would wait till the weekend when everything is on shore. That's what Upton and MT Holly are saying in their discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Can't really take any of these runs seriously until we get the data in by Saturday. Don't forget how the models suddenly shifted south significantly once they had the new data with the last storm. This is still just noise to me this far out anyway. This obviously looks like a strong storm though. There's this weird comfort though that we're not in the impact zone at Day 6, since this is unlikely to play out as modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The GGEM is way OTS unless I am seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The GGEM is way OTS unless I am seeing things. Not surprising, it's 00z solution was one of the most ridiculous I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Spent the first 14 years of my life in Massapequa, they got robbed by a quick change to rain while 287 and North always jackpotted. Hating Long Island for the rare lucky strike, if it even happens, is just so wrong. I dislike Long Island for other reasons which I'll keep private about since they are not weather related. From my experience, we don't get as many 287 jackpots up here as we used to. Seems most of the events are either all rain or all snow for a majority of the area the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This thing is bombing into the 970's by hour 144, this is a classic example of a phase being too late. We need a faster phase between the three branches of the Jet Stream to get this closer to the BM. The Arctic, Pacific, and Subtropical jets throw the party to our NE this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I dislike Long Island for other reasons which I'll keep private about since they are not weather related. From my experience, we don't get as many 287 jackpots up here as we used to. Seems most of the events are either all rain or all snow for a majority of the area the past few years. Yea I remember growing up it was always NW that got the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Anyway back on topic, the GFS just phased a little late but taking into account its typical biases this should not be too alarming everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sorry guys, I was looking at the wrong GGEM. 12z GGEM is fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The GGEM is not, I repeat NOT OUT TO SEA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Help me out here, tell these guys how bad the 80`s were when we were kids . The guys that have been seeing this stuff since 2000 have NO idea what it was like . Crud . haha Paul, Im a little younger I guess =) but even the late 90 and 00s were bad...I remember hoping for storms year after year (only feb 03 and a dec 7 storm were memorable) so I could play tackle football in the street only to watch storm after storm hit NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The last few big events have definitely favored areas to my east, south and north. Been awhile since western sections have been jackpotted by a big one. Yea deff there seems to have been a big shift starting in 06 and def by 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sorry guys, I was looking at the wrong GGEM. 12z GGEM is fantastic. Hate those black@white maps, but looks like a monster of a storm near or at the benchmark. SWEET!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 12z GGEM drops the PV lobe into Midwest and phases. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 12z GGEM drops the PV lobe into Midwest. Boom. Yup, that's exactly what we need. If the PV ends up looking like the GFS we're screwed. This is why I was so discouraged by its run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The only snow jewel we have been missing in our crown since 2000 has been the big post March 21-22nd snow event here. We have cashed in on great late October, November December, January, and February snow events. The major late season snow event has been the most elusive here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The only snow jewel we have been missing in our crown since 2000 has been the big post March 21-22nd snow event s here. We have cashed in on great late October, November December, January, and February snow events. The major late season snow event has been the most elusive here. Good point Blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The only snow jewel we have been missing in our crown since 2000 has been the big post March 21-22nd snow event here. We have cashed in on great late October, November December, January, and February snow events. The major late season snow event has been the most elusive here. According to Monty hall that means we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The GGEM drags this storm NW, essentially getting tugged back west by the polar energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The only snow jewel we have been missing in our crown since 2000 has been the big post March 21-22nd snow event here. We have cashed in on great late October, November December, January, and February snow events. The major late season snow event has been the most elusive here. the only one was the april 7, 2003 snowstorm. that one was spectacular, considering the date. 7 inches of snow in the middle of the street at 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Let's hope the tug and pull NW is real as that can be a huge savior for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How much precip on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 From 980mb south of the benchmark To 959mb in the Gulf of Maine 12 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The GGEM drags this storm NW, essentially getting tugged back west by the polar energy. With no blocking, its threading the needle for us; what else is new? Just one of many scenarios that could play out. The canadian pretty much shows best case scenario. Hopefully the canadian is onto something. If the EURO and GFS start showing this depiction in future runs, this place will explode! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 12z GGEM starts us out with some nice light snow beginning around hr 129 before the PV fully phases in, almost like a pre before a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 With no blocking, its threading the needle for us; what else is new? Just one of many scenarios that could play out. The canadian pretty much shows best case scenario. Hopefully the canadian is onto something. If the EURO and GFS start showing this depiction in future runs, this place will explode! Give me a storm where we aren't threading the needle? Even Boxing Day threaded the needle to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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