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2014 WPAC Tropical Cyclone Season


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Starting off the year with a bang..

 

FAXAI:

20140302.2101.mtsat2.x.vis1km_high.03WFA

 

I literally talked about this on Thursday in Tropical with DeCaria during my tropical weather discussion about this possible development. The storm brewing had a great convection on the northern half of the CoC but was still feeling some shear off to the north from a departing upper level trough. Once the the trough moved out, the system had favorable development conditions with minimal shear and upper level difluence. The polar outflow looked great and the storm was able to intensify. Here it is now roaring out in the WPAC right on schedule. Nice looking storm. Hoping it can develop a better defined eye wall. That would make it a beauty out over open water  

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  • 4 months later...

Bump.

 

Looks like we may be dealing with a real beast of a tropical cyclone in a few days. While the JTWC is "only" forecasting a 105kt peak, the 18z GFS brings this down to 931mb and the 12z ECMWF brings this down to an eye-popping 898 millibars. The system is broad right now and being influenced by some northeasterly shear, but the models show an improving upper-air pattern. It'll be entering increasingly warm sea surface temperatures over its path, with values near 32C east of the Philippines! Eventually looks like a threat to Japan.

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it's still too broad though.. looks like it may take its sweet time to get that core tight enough (that's what she said!)...

 

should still have a chance at a Cat 3 by early next week i think, some very high OHC ahead of its path especially along the Philippine Sea..

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Bump.

 

Looks like we may be dealing with a real beast of a tropical cyclone in a few days. While the JTWC is "only" forecasting a 105kt peak, the 18z GFS brings this down to 931mb and the 12z ECMWF brings this down to an eye-popping 898 millibars. The system is broad right now and being influenced by some northeasterly shear, but the models show an improving upper-air pattern. It'll be entering increasingly warm sea surface temperatures over its path, with values near 32C east of the Philippines! Eventually looks like a threat to Japan.

 

00Z Euro gets it down to 890 mb at t=93.

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Typhoon Neoguri is well on its way to attaining Category 5 equivalency. Convection near -80C wraps almost fully around a warming eye and outflow is expanding in 3/4 quadrants, especially to the northeast. There's still some signs of dry air, but this should continue to be mixed out and doesn't seem to have been a deterrent to intensification so far.

 

wkYVUFI.gif

oo9hFPy.gif

 

Recent microwave:

 

S3gki7P.jpg

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I think its pretty likely that Neoguri has a messy ERC within the next 24-48 hours. The inner core is pretty healthy right now, but the outer core has already formed a very large 3/4th of a convective ring around the inner eyewall. This system has been blessed with alot of high precipitable water overhead and to its south and east, but I think it will also limit its intensity from here on out since this outer convective maxima is at a very large radii, and it will be very difficult to keep mid-level dry air out from such a large wind radii (especially from the northwest).

 

Its somewhat likely this could end up like how alot of WPAC typhoons become, where the center has limited convection and the deeper convective activity is focused in loosely organized rain bands that resemble a very large eyewall. Hope for Josh's sake that isn't the case, but I would like to see a more symmetrical outer core structure for sure to ensure a "clean" ERC. 

 

20140706.1656.GCOMW1.x.89h_1deg.08WNEOGU

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I think its highly unlikely this system re-intensifies... now that ERC has commenced, dry air has infiltrated its core... there is no way that forecast will verify. This is not going to be a clean ERC because the proximity of dry air in the northwest quadrant and the asymmetry of the outer eyewall will likely not allow it to congeal into a nice closed core.

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I think its highly unlikely this system re-intensifies... now that ERC has commenced, dry air has infiltrated its core... there is no way that forecast will verify. This is not going to be a clean ERC because the proximity of dry air in the northwest quadrant and the asymmetry of the outer eyewall will likely not allow it to congeal into a nice closed core.

ECMWF FTL. GFS did a lot better with the track and intensity.

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It seemed like Neoguri was very vulnerable earlier today while dry air eroded the western eye wall and infiltrated his inner core. As I type this, however, he has shaken it off quite nicely and looks about the healthiest he has all day as a complete solid and symmetrical eyewall is back in place. Deep convection, well west of the eye wall has also continued to build back in nicely on his western side...The weakening seen earlier today is definitely over for now...

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/twpac/rb-animated.gif

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