mob1 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Looks better than it did an hour ago, I hope Josh gets into the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 It seemed like Neoguri was very vulnerable earlier today while dry air eroded the western eye wall and infiltrated his inner core. As I type this, however, he has shaken it off quite nicely and looks about the healthiest he has all day as a complete solid and symmetrical eyewall is back in place. Deep convection, well west of the eye wall has also continued to build back in nicely on his western side...The weakening seen earlier today is definitely over for now... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/twpac/rb-animated.gif Looks better than it did an hour ago, I hope Josh gets into the eyewall. Yes, definitely looking better now both on IR and on radar. Looks like it was able to mix out that dry air intrusion from earlier, likely aided by a decrease in environmental shear (evident on CIMSS analyses) IR: Miyakojima radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 The overall appearance looks much improved since this morning with colder cloud tops now wrapping around the western semicircle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 wind reports from the island are still not that impressive though, despite the proximity of the eyewall. Reports from Miyako-jima have ranged from 40 to 50kt sustained although there have been gusts of up to 70kt reported... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 ECMWF FTL. GFS did a lot better with the track and intensity. The GFS would have preformed just as poorly if it had the same horizontal resolution as the ECMWF. The problem is not limited to the ECMWF its related to how the model handles parametrized cumulus (and hence convection) in the inner core of a TC. Neoguri does look better right now, but again there is no way this intensifies to a Category 5 TC like the JWTC suggested earlier. The satellite presentation is more suggestive of a 100 knot TC, per ADT. JWTC is at 110 knots right now, and now have the system weakening form here on out... that is much better forecast from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 No offense to JTWC but I don't know how anybody could conceivably believe this could reintensify back to a Cat 5 now that the core is so loose. And in all honesty its intensity is probably closer to Cat 3 status right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 No offense to JTWC but I don't know how anybody could conceivably believe this could reintensify back to a Cat 5 now that the core is so loose. And in all honesty its intensity is probably closer to Cat 3 status right now. They did drop the intensity down to 110 knots, but yes I agree their earlier forecast was pretty poor. That's not atypical of the JWTC though unfortunately. JMA I think has been more conservative, but they use 10 minute averaged wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Finally found a respectable obs... Kitahara which is at 7m ASL reported 34.2m/s (66.5kt) sustained and a max gust of 46m/s (89kt)... the highest gust ever so far was 52m/s (101kt) but that was at 200m ASL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0814prog.txt Expected to make landfall as a minimal typhoon at best now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Tropical Depression 9W expected to directly hit Guam as a tropical storm in about a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Tropical Depression 9W expected to directly hit Guam as a tropical storm in about a day. Could be another fun storm to watch although there is some pretty large model disagreement. GFS has an intense typhoon striking Tawian, while the ECMWF has a monsoon depression like disturbance heading mainly westward. It does look like the ECMWF has stronger easterly wind shear over the system which could limit development in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 curious case of Rammasun. this system struggled for days amidst strong wind shear in the West Pacific but now it looks like it's intensifying and is on the verge of being upgraded to a typhoon by the JMA (JTWC already did). latest microwave showing the massive improvements in the core. would like to see better poleward outflow though. good news for PH is that it's going to make landfall soon but that 12 hours over the ocean it has left can still do wonders with intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 radar in Virac already picking up the eye. my Video Update: HERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Eye beginning to show up on visible satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 This storm is eerily reminiscent of Typhoon Xangsane (2006), so much, that it's kind of creepy; see for yourself below. Xangsane (known as Milenyo by PAGASA) passed very close to Manila as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Rammasun undergoing rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Rammasun made landfall near Legazpi City about an hour ago and is now moving over land. Eyewall still looks intact as seen on radar, nevermind the northwest part as that's cut off. Radar http://noah.dost.gov.ph/ Also, a weather station in Legazpi bottomed out at 961hPa before climbing back again. James Reynolds is in that city and he's reporting very strong winds. Hopefully, he'll get some really footage there. My Video Update HERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Rammasun undergoing rapid intensification. I was going to say last night before I went to sleep that this is the best looking cat 1 I've seen on IR. I see it's a cat 3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Looks like Rammasun managed to pull off 110 kts at landfall per JTWC, although some satellite estimates temporarily put it even stronger. Real solid "red meat" landfall with a nice symmetric core and no secondary eyewalls to contend with. Looking forward to James Reynold's video! Hopefully people took shelter and there was no loss of life. Seems to be holding on reasonably well (of course some weakening is inevitable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Progged to be one of the stronger typhoons to affect Manila-which is no place to be for any intensity TC. Like NOLA Manila has areas that are below sea level and although there is a stout seawall protecting the bayshore from waves and surge (the US Embassy lies right on the shore), infrastructure to cope with flooding elsewhere in the city is in very poor shape especially in Pasay City, and Tonso. Surge flooding is a big risk in Cavite and the Bulacan shorelines. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I believe Aquino airport is the official reporting station for Manila, if so, they are reporting 45 mph wind gust and a pressure of 994 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Progged to be one of the stronger typhoons to affect Manila-which is no place to be for any intensity TC. Like NOLA Manila has areas that are below sea level and although there is a stout seawall protecting the bayshore from waves and surge (the US Embassy lies right on the shore), infrastructure to cope with flooding elsewhere in the city is in very poor shape especially in Pasay City, and Tonso. Surge flooding is a big risk in Cavite and the Bulacan shorelines. Steve What's left of it is moving back offshore and is going offshore and shifting the wind into Manilla bay. Luckily it's too far south for an Ideal track, but it doesn't sound like it would take much of a surge to cause a serious effect on the city. That's surprising, because the mountains on the east side of the island don't stop every storm, so I assume they get hit with big storm surges at least a few times a century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 latest report from NAIA as 7am PHT (7pm EDT): 08036G61KT so we're starting to get those typhoon-force winds. I expect winds to get stronger as the backside approaches and southwesterly winds move across Manila Bay--which should have less friction. Anyway, a PAGASA Weather Office in Albay recorded a pressure of 959hPa as the system made landfall roughly 12 hours ago. It's the lowest pressure an official PAGASA station has recorded so far for this storm. A weather station in Cavite recorded a pressure of 945hPa 2 hours ago but they are suspecting the data is corrupted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Few times a Century is about right for big surges in Manila since Manila doesn't really get big storms. STY Angela in 1995 was Manila's strongest wind event and it was a high end Cat 2 when it went over the City. I remember the devastation in Cavite after a 2m surge in 1967 from TY Emma. The track of this storm is more typical for a late May/June or a late October/November storm though TY Jean in 1947 hit Manila on Christmas Day. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Eye has warmed over the past few hours, and the surrounding cloud tops continue to wrap around the eye. Looks pretty decent now on satellite imagery. DVORAK T is up to 5.5. 20140717 0832 17.2 -114.6 T5.5/5.5 09W RAMMASUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 10W is hot on its heels as well. Both the GFS and ECMWF say this system won't organize very quickly, but I'm not so sure they have a good handle on the current structure of the TC which looks quite small and healthy (although there is a bit of northeasterly shear). Both the GFS and ECMWF think a very large monsoon depression like structure evolves which simply doesn't jive with the current satellite structure right now. Its worth noting the ECMWF attempted to do the same thing with Rammasun last week, which didn't exactly pan out. Keep an eye on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Rammasun up to a Category 4 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 17, 2014 Author Share Posted July 17, 2014 Rammasun up to a Category 4 now. Over 31°C waters but with 15kts of shear (but decreasing). Still looks mighty impressive. Residents of Hainan are going to get a rude awakening when the sun rises. (Which is just about no actually) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Over 31°C waters but with 15kts of shear (but decreasing). Still looks mighty impressive. Residents of Hainan are going to get a rude awakening when the sun rises. Raw T up to 6.8. Second landfall intensity may rival or exceed the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Rammasun's eye has continued to warm over the past few hours, and the storm continues to produce convection near -80C in the eyewall. It's not unreasonable to say this has become a Category 5. The 0z Best Track from JTWC put it at 125kt...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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